By Silvano Grimaldi, CEO of Grimaldi & Partners AG.
Review – Q1 2026
The international stock markets ended the past quarter with significant losses.
1. Geopolitical shock in the Middle East and a surge in oil prices
The war surrounding Iran and concerns about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased the price of oil and gas. This has been particularly burdensome for Europe, as higher energy prices dampen growth and simultaneously fuel inflation.
2. Newly Priced-In Interest Rate and Inflation Concerns
The energy shock dampened earlier hopes for rapid interest rate cuts. In Europe, the market recently even priced in further interest rate hikes; at the same time, yields in the bond markets rose significantly.
3. Weakness in U.S. Tech Stocks
Particularly in the US, the sell-off in major tech stocks weighed on the indices. According to Reuters, all of the “Magnificent Seven” came under pressure; in addition, doubts arose about the short-term returns of the high AI investments.
4. Trade and protectionism fears
New tariff and tariff concerns particularly burdened export-dependent companies and worsened the planning certainty for corporations in the USA and Europe.
5. Growing economic and credit market concerns
Weaker consumer and business confidence, as well as renewed nervousness in the private credit sector, increased risk aversion. This further impacted cyclical sectors and financial stocks.
Outlook – Q2 2026
Opportunities
1. De-escalation in the Middle East / Decline in Oil Prices
The most important positive trigger would be a relaxation of tensions in the Middle East. Falling energy prices would immediately alleviate fears of inflation and recession.
2. More stable interest rate outlook
If the energy price shock subsides and inflation doesn’t rise further, yields could fall again. This would be particularly positive for growth and quality stocks.
3. Robust corporate profits
Reuters points out that the US appears somewhat more resilient than other regions thanks to solid profitability. Better-than-expected Q1/Q2 figures could therefore trigger a recovery.
Risks
1. Persistently high oil prices
If Brent crude remains significantly above $100 or if further supply disruptions occur, inflation and margin pressure would remain high. This would be particularly problematic for Europe.
2. Further increase in market interest rates
Rising yields would put renewed pressure on stock valuations, especially for tech and other long-term growth stocks.
3. Weaker economy / Recession fears
If the energy crisis spreads to consumption, industry and investment, the geopolitical shock could quickly turn into a profit and growth shock.
Conclusion
Q2 2026 is unlikely to be a linear recovery quarter, but rather a quarter of headlines, oil prices and interest rate reactions.
Overall, we expect a slightly positive trend.
Stock in Focus
Swisscom shines with pricing power and a higher dividend
In the first quarter of 2026, Swisscom was among the strongest Swiss blue chips. The market rewarded the announced subscription price increases, a solid outlook, and above all, the dividend hike. In an uncertain market environment, the stock was once again sought after as a defensive quality investment.
Stock in Focus: Swisscom
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
